From Threat Detection to Prevention: The Evolution of Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management

Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM), originally developed through the work of the U.S. Secret Service and its National Threat Assessment Center, has evolved from a narrow law enforcement and protective intelligence function into a proactive, multidisciplinary model for prevention.

Early threat assessment efforts often focused on investigating explicit threats against public officials and responding after a concern had already been identified. Over time, research demonstrated that targeted violence is better understood through observable behaviors that may develop along a pathway to violence (Calhoun & Weston, 2009). This research helped shift the focus away from trying to predict who would become violent and toward identifying, assessing, and managing concerning behaviors before violence occurs.

Today, BTAM is increasingly recognized as a team-based and public health-informed framework. Effective teams bring together professionals from law enforcement, behavioral and mental health, education, public health, and other community sectors to identify early warning behaviors, assess the level of concern, and develop individualized strategies to reduce risk.

The goal is not simply to determine whether someone poses a threat. The goal is prevention.

This means interrupting the progression of concerning behavior, addressing underlying needs, reducing access to opportunities for harm when appropriate, and connecting individuals with resources and support before a situation escalates into crisis.

Moving Beyond Reactive and Predatory Violence

Traditional approaches have often divided violence into two broad categories: reactive or impulsive violence and predatory or planned violence (Meloy, 1997). While this distinction remains useful, it can oversimplify the complex factors that influence human behavior.

Some individuals may display subtle, atypical, or seemingly unexplained changes in behavior that do not fit neatly into either category. These changes may involve shifts in mood, cognition, functioning, relationships, judgment, or behavior.

BTAM teams are trained to focus on what can be observed: statements, actions, communications, planning behaviors, grievances, stressors, and changes in functioning. However, one area that has historically received less attention is the potential influence of biological factors on behavior.

The Missing Piece: Biological Contributors to Behavior

Behavior does not develop in isolation. Mental and behavioral health outcomes are influenced by an interaction of biological, psychological, social, and environmental factors.

Emerging research continues to demonstrate the potential role of factors such as genetic variation, neuroinflammation, traumatic brain injury, hormonal changes, sleep disruption, nutritional deficiencies, substance use, and other physiological conditions in shaping cognition, emotional regulation, impulse control, and behavior.

Large research initiatives, including the Million Veteran Program, demonstrate the potential value of integrating genomic, clinical, lifestyle, and environmental information to better understand health and behavioral outcomes.

Yet in day-to-day BTAM practice, most programs remain focused primarily on observable behavior and symptom presentation. While these elements are essential, they may not always explain why an individual's behavior is changing or what underlying mechanisms may be contributing to their level of distress or dysfunction.

Toward a More Complete Prevention Framework

Expanding BTAM through a biopsychosocial lens does not mean replacing behavioral threat assessment with medical or biological explanations. Nor does it mean assuming that a biological condition predicts violence.

Instead, it means recognizing that behavior is complex.

A comprehensive prevention framework should consider the interaction between:

• Biological factors, including health conditions, neurological functioning, injury, sleep, nutrition, and other physiological influences.

• Psychological factors, including cognition, emotional regulation, trauma, mental health, and coping.

• Social factors, including relationships, family dynamics, isolation, stress, and community connections.

• Environmental factors, including exposure to violence, access to resources, workplace or school conditions, and broader community influences.

By considering these interconnected domains, BTAM teams may gain a clearer understanding of both risk and resilience.

From Identifying Risk to Understanding Mechanisms

The future of BTAM may lie not only in asking, What concerning behaviors are we seeing? but also:

What may be driving those behaviors?

Understanding the mechanisms contributing to behavioral change can help teams move beyond a one-size-fits-all response. It can support more individualized intervention strategies that address both immediate concerns and the underlying factors contributing to them.

A person experiencing significant sleep disruption, the effects of a traumatic brain injury, substance use, untreated behavioral health needs, chronic stress, or a combination of multiple factors may require a very different intervention strategy than someone whose concerning behavior is primarily driven by grievance, fixation, or ideological motivations.

This distinction matters because effective prevention depends on matching the intervention to the individual's needs and circumstances.

A New Direction for BTAM

A biopsychosocial, mechanism-informed approach offers an opportunity to strengthen Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management by creating a more complete picture of both risk and resilience.

The future of prevention should not be limited to identifying who may pose a threat. It should focus on understanding the complex conditions that contribute to concerning behavior and identifying opportunities for meaningful intervention.

BTAM is already evolving from a reactive process toward a proactive prevention model. Integrating biological, psychological, social, and environmental factors represents the next step in that evolution.

When we move beyond simply asking whether someone is dangerous and begin asking what is happening, why it may be happening, and what can be done to help, we create greater opportunities to intervene earlier, support individuals more effectively, and ultimately reduce the likelihood that concerning behavior escalates into targeted violence.

That is where behavioral threat assessment meets public health—and where prevention has the potential to become more comprehensive, collaborative, and effective.

Eye-level view of a community workshop with participants engaged in BTAM training